Planning for the Decumulation Phase With Peter Neuwirth (#63) — Transcript
Updated: Oct 26
THE PICTURE OF WEALTH · EPISODE 63
Dustin Serviss speaks with actuary and author Peter Neuwirth about moving from accumulating wealth to drawing on it. They explore retirement uncertainty, sequence of returns and making financial decisions that fit a person’s circumstances.
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This transcript was generated from the episode audio and lightly edited for readability. It may contain transcription or speaker-attribution errors. Refer to the recording for exact wording.
Chapters
[00:00:01] Introducing the Picture of Wealth
[00:07:09] How much weight do you give the future?
[00:15:08] Stress-testing the deployment of savings
[00:22:44] Making decisions in an uncertain world
[00:29:44] Market predictions and probability
[00:37:18] Gold and how people value assets
[00:43:46] Learning to spend after years of saving
[00:49:21] The reverse-mortgage discussion
[00:56:14] Timing Social Security in the US
[01:03:19] Peter’s personal barbell approach
Guest & resources
Related episodes
Transcript
[00:00:01] Show announcer: Welcome to the Picture of Wealth, a podcast all about living more of your life now yet being responsible for your future. Lifestyle experimenter, wealth scientist, and financial coach, Dustin Service, shares life hacks, wealth tips, and interviews successful entrepreneurs on how they're thriving in happiness, purpose, and prosperity.
[00:00:22] Dustin Serviss: Today on the podcast, Peter Newworth, author of Money Mountaineering, using the principles of holistic financial wellness to thrive in a complex world. This was a great podcast in a sense that Peter is an actuary for, you know, many decades and has a lot of experience analyzing things from pricing life insurance to, analyzing the statistics on what your retirement might look like in different markets. We cover, you know, things like the sequence of returns. If you get ten percent the first year you have a portfolio versus zero and what average returns actually mean. And we unpack negative bias that people currently carry and how to weigh
[00:01:02] Dustin Serviss: out and weigh through making decisions in such a interesting time right now. I selfishly ask Peter a number of questions that I'm curious about, and I've been in the business for nearly two decades. One thing in particular, is whole life insurance good or bad? And I also get into, is there any sort of investment that's better than the other, I e, Bitcoin, gold, investments, stocks, annuities? Peter does a great job of bringing us back to helping, figure out what is actually good for you. Everyone's different, and he gives a number of questions and provides a few principles in his book, again, Money Mountaineering, on how to navigate
[00:01:43] Dustin Serviss: through the decumulation stage of your life. And and not only that, he also breaks down what financial decisions you can make now to help you set up for an eventual retirement or flexible work environment. So let's get on with the episode. Peter Newworth.
[00:02:01] Peter Neuwirth: This is a very current problem in the actuarial profession because, you know, I was, I was actually there, you know, at the very beginning of four zero one ks. I started my career at Hewitt associates consulting career, and, I had just joined. And in the fall of nineteen eighty one, I attended a technical training session on this new section of four zero one. They'd actually moved the old section k to be l, and they put in a new section k. And, you know, the senior actuator was saying, this is going to be a fantastic new thing. And employees are going to be able to defer money tax free, and they're going to be able to accumulate
[00:02:49] Peter Neuwirth: money tax free and they're going to... It's going to be a tremendous boon for retirement saving. And of course it was, and it was a fantastic thing and it has been a fantastic thing in the forty years that it's been around. But I don't think anybody really anticipated what would happen once employees had accumulated, quote, enough. All right. Well, now that you've got enough money to retire, what are you gonna do with it? How are you gonna live the rest of your life? How are you gonna make it last? How much should you take out to make sure that you don't spend too much and end up exhausting your resources?
[00:03:26] Peter Neuwirth: But on the same time, you don't wanna die with a ton of money either. And that's the problem that the actuarial profession has been struggling with. And, there's a lot of risks associated with, the decumulation phase that that are not in the accumulation phase. Most, you know, most probably prevalent and unreal recognized as the sequence of return risks. Whereas if you if you in the in the early years in your retirement, if you have a few down years in the market, you really could just run out of money very quickly even if, on average, your your returns are okay.
[00:04:06] Dustin Serviss: So is there a question that people could ask themselves to try and vet out growing the money versus adjusting their spending. Because when I work with people, you'll say, hey. You know, you could spend this much money a month. They'll say, okay. Great. You know? And we'll project out some return sequence or or or a Monty model. But then, you know, some people will say, well, I don't wanna ever adjust my savings. So then that person... Like, what solutions do they... Then you're going to annuity and saying, we cannot adjust, but you get less. So how do people gauge that when they're... So I'm two years from retirement.
[00:04:47] Dustin Serviss: I'm trying to figure out all this. What what are the actuaries? And the actuaries, you know, those are behind the scenes of the financial industry for anyone who doesn't know. They figure out insurance and projections and and statistics, really. It's probabilities. Correct?
[00:05:02] Peter Neuwirth: Lot of... It's prob... It's it's it's balancing time, risk, and money. And, that's what it is. I mean, that's what actuarial work is. It's a combination of probability and statistics, finance with the added element of time. In other words, this whole notion of present value and and what's the value today of something that's going to happen many years in the future. And even that is, is not an easy question. And it, and it depends. It depends on the person. I mean, I, you know, there's a lot in, and this is where I, I, I'm a little bit of a contrarian in in in my field because,
[00:05:45] Peter Neuwirth: you know, there's there are actuaries who will tell you, you, You should be discounting future cash flow at six percent or five percent or seven percent because it's all about what you're going to earn. But in the real world, it's people having to make decisions between something today, usually a cost today for a benefit down the road. They have to value themselves. How much is that value ten years from now worth compared to my life and my money today? And I believe that everybody has their own way of balancing present and the future, and and we should honor that. And that's what it makes me a little bit of a contrarian within the
[00:06:31] Peter Neuwirth: actuarial field, which says, no. Actuaries are expert in that particular...
[00:06:38] Dustin Serviss: Is there any camps? Like, there, you know, different camps of people, like, where it's, you know, screw it. I'm... You know, I've got some clients that are... They're gonna work forever, and that's their play. And so they try and keep themselves healthy. Right. And then you have the other ones that are... You know, they only make ninety thousand a year, and they save, like, sixty of it. Right. So I'm exaggerating, but you get it that they're not... They are literally limiting decisions daily.
[00:07:09] Peter Neuwirth: I think... So is... Yeah. That's exactly right. In fact, in, in, in our field, we, we, we talk about the low discounters and the high discounters, because that's what it translate. You know, the high discounters say the future really doesn't matter. It's so far in the future. I'm discounting that at a very, very high rate. And the low discounters are the ones who say, No, I'm going to save for tomorrow because tomorrow I'm going to want it. And I think about that and I value that time. But unfortunately, it's even more complex than that, because different people think about different periods in the future differently. I mean, some people
[00:07:54] Peter Neuwirth: are focused on the next five years and they will sacrifice a lot to make sure five years from now they're fine, but they really don't think about fifteen, twenty, thirty years from now. And there are others that are diverse. So that's why I say, and that's why my sort of principle number one in, of my six principles is everybody's situation is unique. It's not just how much you have and versus how much you owe, but also how much you're going to have and might have and how much you might have to spend and planning to spend in the future. And how you feel about that, how much risk you're willing to take, how much
[00:08:40] Peter Neuwirth: chances you're willing to take to get what you want, and also how much you value today versus tomorrow. As well as, you know, what you're afraid of, what you desire, what's really important to you. It's it's... We... Like I said, that's why I say, if you've seen one financial plan, you've seen one financial plan. Everybody's different.
[00:09:05] Dustin Serviss: If, have you ever done any actuarial work on life insurance?
[00:09:09] Peter Neuwirth: Oh, yeah. I mean, that's, that's probably... If there's one part of, I mean, I know I know retirement and pensions pretty well, but I've also spent quite a quite a lot of time with with in in the life insurance world. I I started with Connecticut General Life Insurance, in nineteen seventy nine. And in fact, I bought my first whole life policy when I was twenty three or twenty four years old. I mean, I didn't have, I didn't have a wife. I didn't have kids. I didn't know. I think I put my sister down as a as a beneficiary. But the point was that this kind of really sharp,
[00:09:46] Peter Neuwirth: life insurance salesman was wandering around the halls of Connecticut General selling whole life insurance to actuarial students. And the reason he was successful is because the numbers worked. He was talking to people that could understand the product, understood how it worked, tended to be low discounters who thought a lot about the future. I bought my first policy from him in nineteen seventy nine Since I've had four more policies purchased, and now I've got five whole life policies worth probably a half a million dollars in terms of cash value. And they've been one of the best investments I've I've had, you know, earning a steady
[00:10:30] Dustin Serviss: guaranteed rate. I love it when we uncover stuff that I never knew, was gonna uncover in a podcast. But, I currently own, two as well. But it is one of... In being in the life insurance business and being someone who sells life insurance and uses it as a solution. And, usually, we're building a plan, and we call it buckets or the conveyor belts. And so we got a a dividend portfolio, and then we got a whole life, and then you got refundable critical illness. And so you're building it like this plan, so it's part of something. It isn't just, hey, Pete. You know, you can save ten grand a year. Why don't you put ten grand in a whole life?
[00:11:09] Dustin Serviss: It's it's a lot bigger than that. But it is one of the most controversial topics. And to hear it from an actuary who understands the numbers... And and for anyone listening, I know that, I'll I'll do my best to really make this extra simple. A lot of the whole life has short term cash values that are very low, longer term being higher. So in a twenty year period, if you're putting in ten thousand a year, in the first ten years, your cash value would be low relative to what you've put in. But after ten to twenty, it really starts to grow. And then after that, it grows even faster.
[00:11:50] Peter Neuwirth: That's right.
[00:11:51] Dustin Serviss: Now a lot of accountants will, challenge it, based on... They could invest. They could do different things with it. So from an actuarial nuts and bolts standpoint, why why do you have five whole lives? Well... And why have you continued to buy them as you got older?
[00:12:13] Peter Neuwirth: So, you know, it's it's it's so interesting because, you know... And and this is actually probably one of the most common questions I get, and people always say, well, shouldn't... I mean, it's just so inefficient. Shouldn't you be, in buying term and investing the difference? Buy term, invest the difference. Yes, that from a very, very narrow technical standpoint, that may be more efficient. But to me, that's the difference of using a scalpel or a Swiss army knife. And to me, whole life insurance is the kind of the Swiss army knife of of financial service, financial products. It does lots and lots of things well enough.
[00:12:55] Peter Neuwirth: I mean, it's a great way. It's a it's a it's a decent way to accumulate, accumulate money tax tax free because it it accumulates tax free. It's then available to borrow, the cash value. I mean, I borrowed my cash value and paid it back probably three or four times in my career. And it provides a tax free death benefit. You... There's periods in your life, and, and I've had periods where I've had very high insurance needs because I've, you know, I was raising a family and had a wife that was studying for her licensing exam in a different field. And so I needed a lot of life insurance, and that's why I bought those extra policies.
[00:13:45] Peter Neuwirth: But then as I got towards the end of my career, I reduced those death benefits and turned them into paid up paid up, paid up policies where I didn't have to pay premiums anymore and had a death benefit that just was high enough to qualify as life insurance, but not so high as it... I was over insured. And so then after retirement, it's, it can be used for all kinds of things. The cash value can be turned into an annuity. You can, again, use it as a as a, place where you can have tax free emergency funds by withdrawing the cost basis, and it can even be used as a as a substitute for a JNS, a joint survivor annuity in retirement.
[00:14:41] Peter Neuwirth: I mean, if you could... You know, a lot of times people take a life annuity, don't take a life annuity from their from their pension plan because they want to protect their spouse when they die. Well, if you have a paid up life insurance, then maybe you can just take a life annuity from your from your retirement plan and leave that life insurance as the, providing survivor income to your to your spouse. And so you see any... Oh, go ahead.... Kinds of things you can do with it.
[00:15:08] Dustin Serviss: Do you see any sort of, stress test? So if I've got... You know, again, a lot of the people... Listeners are successful entrepreneurs. You may have a holding company or an operating company that generates cash. They they save money. So I've got a hundred thousand for easy math. At the end of the year, I've paid myself a salary. We're we're taken care of. And I'm gonna... You know, I've gotta deploy this. You know, maybe some real estate. Maybe, some stocks. You know? Maybe some whole life. Is there a rough amount that you ever had in your head, or is actuarially proven that's the lowest risk as a stress
[00:15:44] Dustin Serviss: test, like, for future cash flow to be able to fund the whole life. So where I'm getting at is, like, if I've got a hundred grand, what's an appropriate amount to put into each bucket? Because... And I think I know what I think I know what the answer is, but I... Is there an... Is there a number or statistically lowest risk that you should have thirty three percent real estate, thirty three percent in stocks, thirty three percent in a bank account. Is there any calculations you've done
[00:16:13] Peter Neuwirth: on that? Well, I've I've done I've done those calculations for myself, but the problem... And there is a number. I mean, it... It's not it's not like a math problem that has a specific answer, but it's but it is tractable in the sense that you can kind of make those judgments and and and calculations. The problem is it's highly specific. I mean, it's it's, yeah, very, very idiosyncratic. And the answer is going to be very different for, for different people. But I mean, my general approach is, is, you know, and I talked about in the book about this barbell strategy. And I think it's it's principle number five, which
[00:16:57] Peter Neuwirth: essentially boils down to advice that my father gave me when when I was a kid, which was, hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and keep lots of irons in the fire because you never know which of the ones is gonna be, you know, flame up and and, you know, keep you warm and take care of
[00:17:19] Dustin Serviss: it. Good analogy. What... So that's a good segue to the book. I think, you know, I've I've kinda kept people at bay for now almost, you know, a half hour. What... Give us the the the introduction to your book, and, and, teaser of the, of the story.
[00:17:38] Peter Neuwirth: Well, you know, let's just say that the, the, I, you know, I've, I've sort of lived, I've lived for about forty years or more than that, almost fifty years in the, in the world of money. And, you know, I see it as a, as a, as a mountain wilderness, a kind of a dangerous, but it's a it's a wilderness we all have to live in. We all have to make our way through because, you know, money was an amazing, brilliant human invention. You know, I'm I'm not going to say it's as as important as the wheel or fire or anything like that, but it was a it was a heck of a good idea to allow, you know, barbers to trade haircuts for bread.
[00:18:24] Peter Neuwirth: And and and, you know, and... But like many good ideas that humans come up with, you know, everybody kept improving it and kept tweaking it and adding whistles and bells. And now we've got an incredibly complex world with, you know, markets that look like they're unrelated, but they are and, and derivatives and, and, and, you know, who knew that, you know, the financial markets would, the stock market would crash when people stop paying their mortgages and and and... Or the or the housing bubble burst in two thousand and eight. It's all complex. It's all on... It's all interrelated.
[00:19:10] Peter Neuwirth: It's kinda like the woods, and it's like this this wilderness that you can get lost in. Not only that, but you don't know what the weather's gonna be like. You don't know when the... When there's gonna be a forest fire or a or a or a a mudslide or or some kind of storm. So you don't know what the future's gonna like. You don't know how it's gonna affect, and it's pretty noisy. There's a lot of there's a lot of people running around telling you what to do. Not all of them know what they're talking about, and almost none of them have... They... And none of them know you exact completely, and they all
[00:19:47] Peter Neuwirth: don't necessarily have your best interests at heart. So what I tried to do in this book is to create a a kind of a trail map, a terrain map, maybe give you some binoculars, a flashlight to see in the dark, and a few things that maybe you should keep in your backpack to, make your way and get to where you wanna go. And and again, I... Some people like to climb the highest peaks and and be able to, you know, scan the whole thing. Some people have big families that they need to take care of, but everybody's different. So that's what this is... This book is about is is who are you? What's your relationship to money? And and, what...
[00:20:30] Peter Neuwirth: You know, I give you some ideas and tips and principles to keep in mind as you make your way.
[00:20:37] Dustin Serviss: And I think, and everyone can apply their own personal thing. And my personal trainer used to say, you know, are you going to complete, or are you going to compete? And, you know, going into some sort of event or something, and if you're just completing it, then you can trade a little different than if you're gonna compete because, there's a lot different mindset and and edge. So I'm sure the book, lays that out, and I... I'm I'm excited about it. I'm excited about the premise, and and especially now. You know, people... The world is filled with distractions up the wazoo. And, I don't know if humans...
[00:21:17] Dustin Serviss: Maybe you've studied this, where as humans have evolved, we've become more hypervigilant or more hungry for the data to try and figure out everything. And you can apply that analogy to umpteen different topics. But as it applies to finance, is there a balance between having too much information and being caught in the peat bog? I don't know if that's mentioned in your book, but the the bog
[00:21:46] Peter Neuwirth: Yeah.
[00:21:47] Dustin Serviss: Opposed to not having enough information and getting caught without a rain jacket. Like, is that... Is... How do you stick handle it?
[00:21:55] Peter Neuwirth: That's a great question. Great point. And and and it touches on a couple of things. First of all, I I do think people are are are getting kind of very obsessed with evaluating all the data and trying to figure things out. I think that comes from just a real anxiety and discomfort with living with uncertainty. I mean, these these have, you know, I I... One of my, well, I've collaborated with Annie Duke on this and and Annie Annie, at some point, says she told me she she gets asked all the all the time, when are we gonna go back to normal? And and and the answer is we're never gonna go back to normal because we never were normal.
[00:22:44] Peter Neuwirth: The world has always been a very uncertain, unpredictable place, and we need to get comfortable with that with that bit of uncertainty. But the other thing that's... That I think you touched on, well, was behind what you're saying is that we really weren't evolved to, to to to choose between fixed and variable rate mortgages. I mean, we were evolved to hear a rustle in the tree in the in the in the in the woods and think, is that a predator going to come and eat me? And that's that's where our risk aversion and that's where our risk metrics and risk calculations come about is from that long millions of years of evolution.
[00:23:28] Peter Neuwirth: So we're not we're not designed to, you know, calculate process lots and lots of data to to do that. So what I suggest is that you're going to need help. You're going to need help with, making your way through this. But the way you should get help is kind of the way you get help from a lawyer. Why do you hire a lawyer? You hire a lawyer to get you out of trouble, or maybe you hire a lawyer to find out if you're in trouble. Maybe you hire a lawyer to evaluate a transaction that you're thinking about, or maybe you hire a lawyer to help you execute a transaction. But every time you hire a lawyer, you're hiring a lawyer that has expertise
[00:24:16] Peter Neuwirth: in exactly what you need help with. And, you know, to the extent you can, you are making sure that that lawyer is working for you. And I I think people should do the same thing when it comes to financial advice, because not everybody knows everything. I mean, you can go to a financial planner. One of the best financial planners I know is, is, that I talk about in the book is this woman, Rita Chang. And what what's terrific about her... Of course, I hadn't met you before, Dustin. So
[00:24:45] Dustin Serviss: No. Yeah. Thanks.
[00:24:47] Peter Neuwirth: But but Rita is so good at knowing what she doesn't know. And when she when she when she has a client that looks like they might need help with a reverse mortgage, she sends them to an expert in that. And likewise, five twenty nine, she does that. Actually, she knows a lot about five twenty nine. She's that she handles herself. But other things she sends she sends you to the expert. So get the help... Get expert help when you need it, and make sure they're working for you. I mean, that's what I was Yeah.
[00:25:18] Dustin Serviss: And I I think you bring up, you know, a a lot of time... You know, people go in whether it's the bank or they go to financial, and they get their spreadsheets and the charts, and, you know, there's all this, you know, what risk tolerance are you? Do you like... Are you a high risk? It's like, well, I don't know. Let's get back to what we're actually trying to do and the values and trying to figure out what actually we're we're doing. And, and I, again, I I see clients all the time where they come in asking for stocks, and they leave looking at realtor dot c a, which in Canada, that's the MOS or the real estate listings.
[00:25:58] Dustin Serviss: Because they they actually... When I ask them the deep questions, they actually wanna buy a place they can share with their family, because both of them grew up and never had that, and their parents wanted it and died. You know? So so then they leave, they say... I say, take that money and go buy that place now instead of five years from now, and then reset and kinda come back. So value based things are are are greatly important. Can you can you give us another, is there any sort of... You used the lawyer analogy and the delegate. Any other specific tools in the book of... And your...
[00:26:36] Dustin Serviss: It's decumulation or, you know, spending in retirement and the the lowering the risk. Is there any emotional triggers or emotional exercises that people can go through when they're thinking about retiring? Because it is their identity for a lot of people. That... What they did owned that company. You know, for a lot of the listeners, they own companies. And so the thought of, you know, selling... And then I'm gonna have a bank account that only goes like this, that is a stumper. So is there any tools or exercises that people could do before they retire that kinda is like the reps, you know, doing, you know, the the workout
[00:27:13] Dustin Serviss: beforehand so that when they actually are either forced via health or a buyout or the economy's rocking and someone like me comes in and says, hey. You've had three years of kinda crap, and you've had two really good years, and you're sixty two. I know you wanted to retire at sixty five, but you could be getting premium dollar. How do people start doing the reps now to get their selves ready for retirement?
[00:27:36] Peter Neuwirth: Well, it's, I mean, that's a great question. And and, you know, I I I guess there's a there's a couple of things. I mean, one is, you know, you, you gotta stay light on your feet. You gotta stay flexible and you gotta stay, you know, ready to, to adapt, to changing, to changing circumstances. So, you know, it's it's, you know, thinking about the future... Looking at the unpredictability of the future with some curiosity, some open mindedness for all the things that might happen, You know? So practice imagining all the scenarios that might happen from the very best to the very worst.
[00:28:19] Peter Neuwirth: I mean, people have a tendency to focus on what they think will happen or what they're really afraid is going to happen. And both of those are good, but you also should be thinking about the whole range. So try to imagine all the things that might happen and all the all the way the ways the future might, right, manifest.
[00:28:39] Dustin Serviss: Worst case to to what what if it's okay instead of...
[00:28:44] Peter Neuwirth: Yeah. I mean, and and, the other thing is... And and this is a technique that that actually is is Annie Annie Duke's and that I picked up on, which is time travel, Is do some mental time traveling. Just really imagine yourself twenty years from now. And just, you know, I think there's even some kind of app on, I think Prudential had it where you could you could get a picture yourself and then have it age twenty years. And then
[00:29:15] Dustin Serviss: you
[00:29:15] Peter Neuwirth: then you... You're probably familiar with that.
[00:29:17] Dustin Serviss: Oh, yeah. You look like... I thought, like, I I don't know if my dad was there at that point. And he's like, no, that's me.
[00:29:22] Peter Neuwirth: Right. Right. So I think that can be helpful. I mean, it was helpful for me anyway to to kind of imagine how I'd feel. And and of course, you you don't... No one no one knows how you're going to feel. You you don't know how you're going to feel twenty years from now, but if anybody would know, it's you. You know? You don't...
[00:29:44] Dustin Serviss: So so as an actuary, you know the probability and the statistics, and you've looked at numbers and stats and back test, front test, whatever test. Right now, lately... And so we're twenty twenty one, heading into third quarter or in... Or or fourth quarter. And I hear people say, yep. Mark's got a crash. You know? And these are common people, not deep into the... But they're... They got a feeling. And, you know, on the flip side, you you say, well, you know, things might not be what they say on Fox News. Right. But but people... Is it proven or scientifically proven that people are negative, like, negative bias first?
[00:30:30] Dustin Serviss: And and and what actually... Like, in the past history, the market has gone up into the right over a hundred years. So we've had deep troughs in there. But going forward, how do you help people, or how would you help people look at the science of the numbers that we've been in this exact spot, maybe you know that exact number, many times in the past?
[00:30:55] Peter Neuwirth: Yeah. Well, it's a it's a, here's the unfortunate fact. I, I, I think it's a, it's, it's a fact, which is that markets in general are, I mean, there's a lot of, there's a lot of, investment, professionals who calculate and based on, you know, long history, they make some assumptions about what the distribution of future returns might be. And generally speaking, they assume, you know, a normal distribution because it's easier to calculate. And in a... If things are driven by normal distributions, then the past data can give you a very good understanding of what the, what the future might look like.
[00:31:47] Peter Neuwirth: But unfortunately, history has shown that markets really don't follow a normal distribution. They follow what's called a fat tail distribution. And fat tail distributions have black swans, which come out of the tail of the distribution. And suddenly the world has been turned upside down. And we've seen that happen a couple of times in the last twenty years. And and, it's gonna happen again. And how bad it is and what happens next is is really anybody's guess. So I I don't... I try not to... I don't... And one of the things about a a fat tail distribution is that you just don't have enough time to collect enough data to really understand what
[00:32:31] Peter Neuwirth: might happen or what is expected to happen. So now that being said, I think there are some things that you can see and and project at least a little bit. For example, I mean, I think the the, the government in order to the fed in order to, to stop this, the bleeding in the economy. And, and, and we had worse economic, this was worse economic crash in some ways when the pandemic hit than in the depression, because the unemployment rate went from like three and three and something, three percent up to fourteen percent in a month. And that never happened even during the depression. And and the fed printed a ton of money.
[00:33:19] Peter Neuwirth: They sent a lot of, checks out. They added immense liquidity into the system. They they bought municipal bonds so that cities could continue to make make their payments. And they they stopped the bleeding, but they did it at a cost. I mean, they really increased the money supply by a huge amount, and that's that's gonna have an impact. And I think we're already seeing that if the money supply went up twenty eight percent last year, then, well, why aren't prices twenty eight percent higher than they were last year? Well, because there's a lot of other factors that drive prices. But I really do believe that we are gonna see
[00:34:01] Peter Neuwirth: some kind of inflation that's gonna be problematic for a while. Will it be forever? Who knows?
[00:34:08] Dustin Serviss: What makes it go back? Like, what... Is is it your, like, your word the last thing in your calculation of time? Or what makes... What will make it come... Like, take the money off the... Take the money out of the system?
[00:34:22] Peter Neuwirth: Well, there's there's lots of different ways that money can come out of the system. I mean, it can come out of the system through taxes. I mean, people don't appreciate it, but, you know, the government creates money by, you know, running the printing presses and, and, you know, basically putting things, you know, just buying stuff, you know, with with ledger, lit live ledger, entries, but they also can take money out of the system through taxes. And are they going to take enough money out of the system through taxes to bring it back and balance? Who knows? But the other way is, is productivity. So if productivity is, you know, we have huge,
[00:35:08] Peter Neuwirth: increases in productivity that that could bring it back. And... But, you know, again, I don't, I I don't engage in long term projections. All I know is that there's something in the system right now, which is this huge increase in money supply that I believe... And I could be wrong too. I mean, there could be all kinds of things that will change it, but I believe we're going to see some higher prices. That's why I'm investing in comic books right now.
[00:35:38] Dustin Serviss: Well, I was I was gonna... You know, this this isn't an investment podcast, but everyone always finds it interesting on where people sort of put their money. And and I was gonna ask if if Bitcoin has, any sort of place on your radar or if it's more whole life insurance or, you know, if inflation's gonna be there, then one would argue commodities and and real estate.
[00:35:59] Peter Neuwirth: Yeah. Well, I, like I said, I mean, again, I... When people ask me, well, what do you recommend I do? And I say, well, first of all, I don't recommend anything. I, I will tell you what I do and I'll tell you why I do it. And if I get to know you really well, I might say, if I was in your position, I would do this and this is why. But, but what I'd... What I've been doing is I've been buying real things. I've been buying, you know, I... I'm, you know, buying old furniture, old books. I mean, stuff that's that's real because, and also that's what I value. So so it works for me.
[00:36:40] Dustin Serviss: Yeah. And that's that's a huge, gold Bitcoin, real stuff, real estate.
[00:36:46] Peter Neuwirth: Yeah. You probably want... So Bitcoin, you know, I Well, no.
[00:36:49] Dustin Serviss: I'm... I wasn't pressured here for it. I just... What people value, is always the debate of, you know, gold. I I do have a client where I took her to a gold, specific broker, you know, and she she had all these stacks of gold. And so she has these one ounce mint. They call them quad nines. And so stack of those on the table, and it's twenty thousand dollars. I'm literally looking at the gold. Mhmm. I'm looking at him with the stack of cash.
[00:37:18] Peter Neuwirth: Uh-huh.
[00:37:18] Dustin Serviss: And I'm looking at her, and and I'm thinking, this is so bizarre that people... There's... Like, he obviously had a buyer for that. So so some pea... And then she gets her buddy, and she... You know, it was it was long lost in her safe for years and years. And so people do value it. As much as people go, oh, it's just a number. It's just... What would you do with gold? Like, well, it's something. And, that I find fascinating. And and Bitcoin's the same thing because it's
[00:37:44] Peter Neuwirth: Yeah. I mean, I I I do have a few gold coins and a few few of those. But, you know, money in and of itself, I don't... I mean, I'm I'm a little bit... Again, this is my own personal bias. I'm not sure money just as a as a thing has has a lot of value. It's really just... It's a medium of exchange as far as I'm concerned. But, the Bitcoin is very interesting. I had a... And I talk about it in the book. I have a friend who is a computer science guy. He's actually artificial intelligence. And he came to me back when Bitcoin was selling for eight. And, he said, you know, there's this new
[00:38:29] Peter Neuwirth: thing in the world of money that's going to revolutionize the world of money. And I said, oh, really? Tell me about it. And then he starts telling me about the Byzantine generals problem and this very complicated computer science. And he's talking about blockchain technology and how the nonces and registers... And I'm saying, But what does this have to do with money? He said, I'll get to it. I'll get to it. And then he's saying how this blockchain technology enables the creation of this currency that has a fixed supply and it cures all the problems. And and he said, I'm, you know, I said, he said, I bought a
[00:39:05] Peter Neuwirth: hundred of these coins and I'm not gonna sell them until they get to a hundred thousand each. And I think they're worth a million, but I'll wait until they get to a hundred thousand. And, well, he, he, he was right. And he, the, the truth is he started selling them when they got to about, I don't know, ten or twenty thousand. He still has a few.
[00:39:25] Dustin Serviss: Yeah.
[00:39:25] Peter Neuwirth: But but my problem with that was okay. But... So now you're gonna sell them, but you're gonna sell them for dollars. But you just said that they're they're worth, you know, something because the dollars are not worth. Well, what are you going to do with all those dollars? And and they're going to get worse. So it's a it's a kind of a chicken and egg thing that I I I still have trouble with when it comes to Bitcoin.
[00:39:50] Dustin Serviss: It's like buying a stock and you're saying, oh, I'm gonna just trade this, and then you go the wrong way, and, now you're buying holes. Right? So you just change your stats. Just move the bean, different cup. It'll be fine.
[00:40:03] Peter Neuwirth: Alright.
[00:40:03] Dustin Serviss: So thank you. But I I was, I just didn't know if you had any sort of stats and and principles on, and sort of the numbers and and, so in in the actuary world, I'm gonna make you come back to the book in a minute. But in the actuary world, what is the most fascinating thing that you've seen in your forty years? The most fascinating thing I've seen in my forty years. In in the actuarial world of numbers that you were either the most surprised by or, you know, that that was a really an moment where you're like, Now I figured that out, and, you know, it had been a problem that you hadn't figured out in years in years based on the numbers.
[00:40:40] Peter Neuwirth: That's a great question. I mean, there there is a lot of, there there are a lot of things that that surprised me. One of the things that that really surprised me, and fortunately, I I kind of got in on it early in the in the sense of trying to help help my clients get around it was the extraordinary increase in, the cost of medical care that we've experienced in my time. I can remember back in the nineties sitting with my mentor, who's an old Scottish actuary who'd who'd seen a lot. And I was explaining to him how there's this new accounting for retiree medical benefits and how that was going to be a big deal for companies.
[00:41:41] Peter Neuwirth: Because, you know, we have to do an actuarial... A new kind of actuarial valuation of of these future medical medical expenses, which was a which is a very, very interesting... Was a very, very interesting exercise. And he says, well, they can't keep going up like this for too long because... And then he did some back of the envelope calculation said the, then medical care will become, you know, I don't know, thirty percent or something of part of the economy. And that's ridiculous because right now, medical care is only, I don't know, three, four percent of the of the of the economy. And,
[00:42:23] Peter Neuwirth: but, you know, we also looked and said, well, at one point, agriculture was sixty percent of the economy, and now it's, you know, something. And it was, for me that has been just fascinating to... And and, you know, in some ways tragic to watch how amazingly expensive the cost of keeping ourselves healthy has become.
[00:42:47] Dustin Serviss: And probably, I guess, like you said, productivity has to go up. So could it be more efficient via... Yeah. That's a huge... We could go down so many places. But I think the preventative and mindset and lifestyle is where it starts, not trying to fix when people have problems.
[00:43:08] Peter Neuwirth: Maybe. Maybe. I mean, that's the thing. I mean, there's lots... See, I I... I've spent most of my career just trying to assess and diagnose and see what's happening, see maybe where it's heading, what kind of momentum it has. But I just... I've never had the... I'm not that kind of actuary to try to fix things or try to say, well, if we did this, then that would happen. I mean, there are plenty of smart people trying to do that. And a lot of those ideas are there. But, you know, if I could, you know, help solve the decumulation problem, I will feel feel very good about that.
[00:43:46] Dustin Serviss: And... Yeah. Well, and I think, we often hear clients say, you know, they'll have a three million dollar portfolio, and we'll say, hey. You gotta spend more. You're only spending x, and, you know, we've stress tested it to this percent and lower. And and they'll say, well, no. That's not how I got here. And then we'll say, okay. Well, then why you start giving it to their kids? Why you start giving it to your kids? Oh, I don't wanna fuck them up because they're they're gonna be entitled. It's like, well, your kids are, like, fifty, and they've already got their own businesses. So if you're not gonna give it to them and you're not gonna spend
[00:44:17] Dustin Serviss: it, then this is gonna be your tax bill. Right. So the punchline is saying to them, what if you could have actually taken one day off a week and not work so hard and only had two million? Right.
[00:44:31] Peter Neuwirth: Right.
[00:44:32] Dustin Serviss: And and you still woulda had enough. And so then it's a real mind bend, and and you go and everyone gets to a certain place. But it is the example I use with younger people of saying
[00:44:42] Peter Neuwirth: Mhmm.
[00:44:43] Dustin Serviss: You know, if you are successful, then... And maybe maybe you can, you know, stretch your brain to to... You know? So so in decumulation mode, do you have a formula in the book that you talk about on on that, or is it more of a mindset? Well,
[00:45:01] Peter Neuwirth: I actually don't talk about it in the book. This is this is the other, you know, because I'm I'm... I I didn't just write a book. I'm I'm still an actuary. And I'm I'm involved. I'm involved with the University of Illinois Academy for, I think it's for the use of home equity and financial planning, because what, what people are now starting to realize is for for most people, the value of their home and the value of the equity in their home is probably far greater than their four zero one ks balance that I think there's probably ten trillion dollars worth of home equity, and there's only about five trillion dollars worth of four zero one
[00:45:43] Peter Neuwirth: ks balances out there. So what I've I've been involved with with, with a, another fellow, he's not an actor. He's actually a physics PhD. Barry Sachs is we've been doing a fair amount of research, and we've actually published a couple of papers on how you can utilize a reverse mortgage and your four zero one and a portfolio of stocks and bonds in a coordinated way to actually draw down. And basically, you're drawing down from the portfolio after up years and you're drawing from the reverse mortgage when the portfolio is... When the market is down. And by coordinating the drawdown, you can actually take a higher,
[00:46:31] Peter Neuwirth: draw during retirement with a higher percentage... Probability of not exhausting your assets. And so we published that a while back, and, you know, it made a little bit of a splash. Not a lot of people have have, it's been cited a few times, but not a lot of people have actually, you know, used it. But,
[00:46:53] Dustin Serviss: not used it yet.
[00:46:54] Peter Neuwirth: Well, not yet. But but but the but the question, and it kind of gets back to one of the things you asked before, but the challenge has been, yes, but then you're not leaving your home to your kids. You're spending all your assets. So the the latest research that we've done is is to look at the legacy. Because what what our approach does is it addresses sequence of return risks, and it gets you it manages that. And if you manage sequence of return risk, you can, you know, go a ways towards solving the decumulation problem. But the question is, okay, so you do this, what are you going to be leaving your kids when you die?
[00:47:34] Peter Neuwirth: And and the answer is about the same. But the mix will be different. There'll be more of your portfolio available and less of your home equity. Because one of the things about a reverse mortgage, it's wonderful as you can never owe more than the house is worth. So no matter no matter what, when you die, the worst that'll happen is the house will be worth, you know, the house will be worth the same as the the mortgage. You pay off the mortgage and and then you've got a house, or you refinance it. But leaving a portfolio to your kids is actually more flexible, because if you've got two or three siblings that are trying to split up a
[00:48:15] Peter Neuwirth: house, it's a whole lot easier to split up a portfolio. So anyway, so that's that's kind of what I'm involved with, but that's, you know, it's it's a little different from the from the work about, you know, that I didn't I didn't address it in the book.
[00:48:28] Dustin Serviss: So if I'm doing... I literally just had this conversation yesterday with a lady with, you know, we'll call it freezing about two hundred thousand in retirement assets, sixty nine years old, and then nine hundred dollar... Nine hundred thousand dollar house paid off.
[00:48:43] Peter Neuwirth: Mhmm.
[00:48:44] Dustin Serviss: And our discussion was around the fact that this house is an acre. It requires work and effort, of which, her husband who recently passed away is not around to do anymore. Mhmm. And so I was explaining to her, well, you got all that equity. You got all these goals that you got down. What if you sold the house and went and rented? Like, at your age of sixty nine for twenty more years. Yeah. I know that you weren't supposed to you were supposed to pay off your house, and that was the the dream of of whatever. But you could... That money... You you... And you could be in the market with... You could be... You have no risk.
[00:49:21] Dustin Serviss: You could just have it in a high interest savings account. And and and it really... She... Her wires were... Where she was coming around near the end. But in the reverse mortgage strategy,
[00:49:33] Peter Neuwirth: do you pay the interest? No. That's the beauty of it. So in your in your circumstance, the the... Your your client, what she could do, because, again, she can't, if she can't maintain the house, then she sells it and buys another smaller house where she can live for, you know, let's say, but what she can do by buying that house, she can buy that house with a reverse mortgage, so that you can use a reverse mortgage to purchase. And so when she or she can, she can pay cash. And if she pays cash for the for the new house, then she can take out a reverse mortgage and set up a a HECM or a reverse mortgage credit line and draw down that
[00:50:18] Peter Neuwirth: as she needed it. Or she could do it in a coordinated fashion with her four zero one ks and do exactly what Barry and I are are suggesting. And and, I mean, I I think she's actually a a pretty much of a textbook case for for for doing exactly what we're saying. And by the way, I I I don't wanna leave leave out those other, products, which is, you know, annuities and life insurance and so forth. Because, you know, Barry and I, our our newest research is incorporating, annuities into the... And life insurance into the the strategy that involves a reverse mortgage as well as a portfolio.
[00:51:01] Peter Neuwirth: So, I mean, we're trying to get our arms around the decumulation problem, but it's it's a hard one.
[00:51:07] Dustin Serviss: For the audience, Pete, why do I care about sequence of returns? Oh, because... So give... Back us up to what you mean by that, just for anyone who doesn't sort of context.
[00:51:19] Peter Neuwirth: Okay. So if if I earn if earn twenty percent in the first year... Let's say I earn ten percent a year for five years and then zero percent for five years, I'll have an average return of five percent. Well, if you take that scenario, and you start drawing down your balance from, during the years that you're earning ten percent for five years, you'll be fine. You'll have way more at the end of those ten years, even with the zero percent returns in the last five years, then you will, if you had zero percent return for five years and then ten percent return for the next five years. Because if you're starting to draw down a declining
[00:52:15] Peter Neuwirth: or or or a or a an account that is not earning what what you expect, you're depleting it and leaving less money there to... For for when the returns come back. So, so, I mean, you know, it's, it's hard to do it without a, you know, showing it up on Blackboard. But, but, but, you know, trust me that if you, if you earn ten percent for five years and zero percent for five years, you're going to do much worse, much better than if you... As you draw down than you will if you earn zero percent for five years and then ten percent in the second. Robert Leonard (3nine thirty
[00:52:57] Dustin Serviss: seven): So consistency is more important. Not getting... If you could only get
[00:53:02] Peter Neuwirth: It's actually... What's most important is to draw from your portfolio in up markets and not draw from your not draw from your portfolio in down markets, because you're compounding the problem and leaving less money to return when... To... For the markets to recover.
[00:53:24] Dustin Serviss: And if you had a chart to draw on the screen, it really would equate to if you were sixty five and you got the zero percent for the first five years and then ten, your money's gonna run out at, say, age eighty. Right. Whereas if you got the ten, the money would last to age eighty seven or something. So it's it's Exactly. Longevity.
[00:53:47] Peter Neuwirth: I had a question
[00:53:48] Dustin Serviss: I was gonna ask you. Are you familiar with the Canada Pension Plan up in Canada or not, not some... About the what? With the Canada Pension Plan?
[00:53:55] Peter Neuwirth: I had to study it way, way back.
[00:53:58] Dustin Serviss: That was
[00:53:59] Peter Neuwirth: probably... I mean, I had to study social security... The social security system and the can... Canada pension plan. Well, I'm asking that is it varies by province, doesn't it? Or is it
[00:54:08] Dustin Serviss: no. But it it varies on on your income and how long you've contributed to it. But let's just use a pension. So should a person take... Delay the pension to get a higher amount Right. And use their assets sooner, or should they take the pension sooner, and then that means that their assets are gonna last longer?
[00:54:36] Peter Neuwirth: Mhmm.
[00:54:37] Dustin Serviss: Is there a better strategy in that regard?
[00:54:40] Peter Neuwirth: That's a great question. And and that's a that's a question actually might... So there... There's another fellow, Steve Vernon, who's the, an actuary who is the, he's a fellow at the longevity center in Stanford, and he's thought a lot about that. And he he focuses on people that don't have houses and really the people who are really struggling to get by. He's got a white paper out there called Spend Safely in Retirement. What he points out is that it is so... The way the actuarial factors are, it is so much more financially beneficial to delay social security as long as you possibly can, but you need to have money to live on.
[00:55:26] Peter Neuwirth: So he he advocates kind of a bridge, you know, using your four zero one ks to bridge the time between retirement and when the actuarial increases or maximum, which I think is at about seventy right now. So from a numbers perspective and actuarial perspective, that makes sense. Now, again, it's it depends on the person because let's say you you've have a very, you know, let's say you know that you're not going to live for very long, let's say, you know, there's, you're, you're sixty five. And you're, you know, you know, you're you... There's some health issues in your family and and you're not likely to hit the actuarial tables.
[00:56:14] Peter Neuwirth: Well, then it might make sense to start taking your Social Security sooner because and in fact, I have a, this is an, as a friend, who's an actuary. And, and I, it turns out his, his fears are, are, were ill founded, but he took his, he took his social security at age sixty five because he was afraid that the, the system was going to go broke and that he'd be cut back by twenty five percent. And he did the numbers and said, you know, if the, if the, if, when the, if the system goes broke in twenty twenty or twenty or not twenty twenty, two thousand and thirty, then over the over my life
[00:56:50] Peter Neuwirth: expectancy, I'm going to get less by deferred by delaying. So it's really a, again, it's a little bit of an idiosyncratic calculation. But in general, the actuarial, increase factors make it a pretty pretty tilt tilt towards delaying retirement... To delaying social security if you can.
[00:57:11] Dustin Serviss: Laying it. So the the studies and the books that I've read on it are... And you're bang on. Every person could have more random details that make it different. But the premise that I remember was that you would have... If you took your socials... If you took your pension late, which would mean if you retired at sixty five and you didn't take your pensions till seventy, that means you need some money to get you in between. Right. That means you're gonna have to use more of your money in the bank. So if you take your... More of your money out of the market, you have a time advantage because you don't have time risk
[00:57:53] Dustin Serviss: that there's probability that the market could've... Could could negatively happen out twenty years or fifteen years. So if you use more your money, but then you got a bigger pension, you need less retirement assets once the pension is kicking on.
[00:58:08] Peter Neuwirth: That's right. That's right. That's So That's that's exactly right.
[00:58:13] Dustin Serviss: I I got one I got I got one final question on the life insurance side. If if you were in that space, like, how how does life insurance actually work when they're pricing it? Like, when they're... When you're pricing life insurance, because I... You know, I get people asking for quotes. I get people asking to, reduce my commission, or is there a deal that they could get because they're a buddy? And if I reduce my, you know, thousand dollars I make in commission, how much would that affect their premium, which we can't in Canada. That's not how it works. But how how is life insurance priced? Just as a selfish, bonus question.
[00:58:51] Peter Neuwirth: Well, I mean, it's it's priced by actuaries. And, there's a lot of there's a lot of it's a very, it's very, very complicated. I mean, if you if you open the hood of a life insurance policy, you'll see it's a very complicated engine. I mean, there's there's there's required reserves that has to be set aside, there's surplus that that different carriers. And there's even these days, there's another factor that's actually becoming much more favorable for the for the consumer, which is that insurance companies are now looking at enterprise risk. I mean, not to make it... Not to not to put a judgment on it, but in a sense, insurance companies
[00:59:40] Peter Neuwirth: are now thinking of this as if they were a casino because they are there. They are ensuring these, life, the the life insurance, the again, mortality risks, but they also sell annuities, which is essentially longevity insurance. So what they're trying to do is balance their annuity business with their life insurance business. So if mortality... Because nobody knows. I mean, the pandemic was a was a classic example, and I think hammered this home to a lot of insurance companies that there could be increased mortality that cuts across, and we could be ending up paying out much more in death claims than we were expecting.
[01:00:28] Peter Neuwirth: It's not like actuaries haven't thought about pandemics and war risk and all kinds of stuff in the past, But I think they've become more attentive to it and thinking, okay, we, we should be balancing our annuity book of business with our life insurance book of business, so that we as an insurance company can still be there to provide the great service that I believe insurance companies have for two hundred years, which is to help employee help, individuals, guard against and insure against the risks. I mean, whether it's living too long, which is what an annuity does, or dying prematurely, which is what life insurance is.
[01:01:07] Peter Neuwirth: So like I said, I think there's, I'm pretty optimistic about the pricing of both of those. Because once an insurance company has those books balanced, then they can provide, you know, very fair price. But when it... When they just have life insurance, then they have to set us... Then they have to collect extra money just in case. And
[01:01:32] Dustin Serviss: So so you're you're actually bullish on stability. I was thinking that as as we start inputting these new risks or these new things and actuaries are people. And the the predominant negative bias of humans as we are evolving towards that would be worse because they're gonna wanna collect more premiums. So I was thinking that premiums might actually be going up, you know, relative to the same forty five a male or female that that would go up. But I never thought of the annuity piece. And for anyone who doesn't know, annuity is simply as you give the insurance company a hundred thousand, and they say to you, don't quote me.
[01:02:12] Dustin Serviss: I have no idea if this is what it is. We'll give you, four thousand dollars for the rest of your life until you die.
[01:02:20] Peter Neuwirth: Right. Right.
[01:02:22] Dustin Serviss: So no risk. No market risk. It's just a guaranteed pension, basically.
[01:02:26] Peter Neuwirth: Well, it's it's it's a risk for them. Yeah. But it's a risk for them because, you know, people live to one hundred. I mean, there's... Believe me, in in the past, that's that's what insurance... That's why insurance companies were a little reluctant to jump into the annuity business wholeheartedly because mortality just kept improving and improving and improving. And people looked at this and said, oh, my God, people, you know, what happens if these these tech technology geniuses in in Silicon Valley suddenly cure old age, and now we're gonna be paying people forever.
[01:03:02] Dustin Serviss: Yeah. Well, I I hope to get that pill, Pete, when that comes available. So thank you, very much. Where... Well, before I get to that, I ask everybody this question. What is your ultimate picture of wealth?
[01:03:19] Peter Neuwirth: Well, that's a great question. And and so, you know, I'm I'm I'm a low discounter. And and, so, I mean, I I I recommend in my book, you know, a barbell strategy where you... We have one, set of, you know, safe, guaranteed income and another where you've got a lot of irons in the fire and a lot of possible things. And I'm, I'm, my safe barbell is is pretty heavy. And that's, that's, that's, to me is, is not having to worry is to me, wealth means just knowing that I'm going to have a steady income and it's enough, it doesn't have to be a huge amount, but enough that I don't have to worry about it. So that's that's what it is to me.
[01:04:11] Dustin Serviss: Well, thanks, Pete, and make sure that it's enough to buy the odd piece of old furniture.
[01:04:15] Peter Neuwirth: Yeah. Right.
[01:04:17] Dustin Serviss: So thank you very much for being on the show. Where can people find, your book, your resources, or if you're for hire, where where do people find information? No.
[01:04:26] Peter Neuwirth: I I I I, like I said, I I... You can buy my book on Amazon. The... It's money mountaineering, and you can go to money mountaineering dot com, and that'll that'll, get you there. And I have, I have a website, peterneworth dot com. And I, you know, just, just reach out. I have my email address there and I I love helping people. And if if, if you want help, I'm I'm there to there to help.
[01:04:57] Dustin Serviss: Well, thanks a lot, Pete. We got lots. I'm sure we could go on, so maybe we could look ahead and schedule because, I've written down some notes. So I look forward to, seeing you next time on the show.
[01:05:07] Peter Neuwirth: Well, thank you so much, Dustin. This has really been fun. And and I... It's it's it's really fun to talk to somebody who's, like I said, a fellow traveler in the wilderness. So thank you for having me. You're welcome.
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